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Shivani Financial GBP/USD short term bottom seems 5478-5383 and top 6210-42. Shivani Financial EUR/USD short term bottom seems 2580-2618 and top 3510. Shivani Financial USD seems to weaken this quarter with GBP target of 6330 and EUR of 3250 if talks of QE3 takes place and euro area resolution policies implemented without new story. Shivani FinancialGold has taken correction according to our forecast for it to go 1850 by August end.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Market Brief (17-Feb-2012)

Risk appetite firmed in Asian session on the back of the postive Greek headlines “Fin Min on track to approve second Greek bailout package on Monday”. There were also rumors (several newswires and Die Welt) that the ECB might plan to swap its current holding of Greek paper for newly issued debt. The key feature of the new bond would be the shift of jurisdiction to English law from Greek law. This legal change would eliminate Greece’s ability to retroactively position collective action clauses into existing bonds. EURUSD was able rally to 1.3146 but momentum began to wane late in the session. BoJs Shirakawa stated Japan "has a long way to go to beat deflation” and “yields will rise if BoJ seen monetizing debt”, however the reaction in the JPY was limited. He also provided more details on the BoJ thinking on setting inflation target by stating "we judged it's more effective and credible to set an inflation goal rather than specifying the timing of an exit as Japan faces high uncertainties for the outlook of the economy and prices." USDJPY above 79.00 for the first time this year critical resistance to watch is 79.20 before the October intervention high of 79.54. Regional Asian indices rose across the board with the Nikkei up 1.58%, Hang Seng 0.70% and Shanghai Composite 0.03%. Gold is drifting higher to $1,735.00 levels. 

Today’s data calendar is light of significant economic data releases, as the market focus primary focus is on Greece. In Europe, we have EZ construction output and in the UK retail sales (our focus of the day). And to round off the week, in the US, we have CPI and leading indicators.


By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant

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