The euro has rallied strongly over the last 24 hours as speculation mounts that Greece is close to resolving some of the outstanding issues standing in the way of securing further bailout cash. Yesterday afternoon, a Greek government spokesman announced that political leaders had scheduled to meet today and respond to the latest troika proposals by noon; a development which seems to suggest a potential deal has been struck or is very close to being struck. Additionally there appears to be progress made on the debt swap situation. After initial resistance, the ECB has tentatively agreed to participate in the debt swap by transferring its holdings at purchase cost to the EFSF, contingent on the participation of private sector investors.
The positive Greece news has not only fanned euro crosses higher, but also lifted risk appetite sufficiently to catalyze good gains in the equity markets. The Nikkei is up 1.10%, Hang Seng +1.4% and Shanghai Composite +2.4%. Gold has recovered to $1750 levels from yesterday’s low of $1710, and crude oil is now hovering around $99 per barrel. USDJPY has managed to climb above 77.00 for the first time this month, taking some of the pressure off the BoJ and Japanese Ministry of Finance to take dramatic action in the FX market. We still expect the Japanese authorities to remain acutely aware of USDJPY movements, and do not doubt their willingness to intervene should the yen begin to appreciate sharply once again.
There are no major economic data releases due in today’s session so the market is likely to remain focused on the upcoming Greece announcements. Tomorrow we will get the latest BoE and ECB monetary policy meetings; and the ECB press conference should be particularly interesting as journalists will get to grill Mario Draghi on the nature and implications of the ECB’s debt swap involvement.
The positive Greece news has not only fanned euro crosses higher, but also lifted risk appetite sufficiently to catalyze good gains in the equity markets. The Nikkei is up 1.10%, Hang Seng +1.4% and Shanghai Composite +2.4%. Gold has recovered to $1750 levels from yesterday’s low of $1710, and crude oil is now hovering around $99 per barrel. USDJPY has managed to climb above 77.00 for the first time this month, taking some of the pressure off the BoJ and Japanese Ministry of Finance to take dramatic action in the FX market. We still expect the Japanese authorities to remain acutely aware of USDJPY movements, and do not doubt their willingness to intervene should the yen begin to appreciate sharply once again.
There are no major economic data releases due in today’s session so the market is likely to remain focused on the upcoming Greece announcements. Tomorrow we will get the latest BoE and ECB monetary policy meetings; and the ECB press conference should be particularly interesting as journalists will get to grill Mario Draghi on the nature and implications of the ECB’s debt swap involvement.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
No comments:
Post a Comment
Feel free to comment.