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Shivani Financial GBP/USD short term bottom seems 5478-5383 and top 6210-42. Shivani Financial EUR/USD short term bottom seems 2580-2618 and top 3510. Shivani Financial USD seems to weaken this quarter with GBP target of 6330 and EUR of 3250 if talks of QE3 takes place and euro area resolution policies implemented without new story. Shivani FinancialGold has taken correction according to our forecast for it to go 1850 by August end.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Market Brief (19-Jan-2012)

The main news overnight has been Japanese Finance Minister Azumi once again voicing his commitment to taking firm steps against speculative FX moves. Interestingly, he admitted that it would be difficult for the BoJ to follow the example of the SNB by defending a particular exchange rate for the yen, citing the vast size of the JPY market as a major hurdle to controlling supply. This is the first time an official has plainly ruled out such a strategy, and suggests that if the BoJ were to intervene again, it would be in a similar vein to the last instance – that is, random and aggressive buying of USDJPY or EURJPY to clear out speculative positions.

The equity markets made strong gains yesterday, but today’s Asian session has been a little more mixed. The Nikkei is up +1.00% and Hang Seng +0.3%, but the Shanghai Composite is down -1.4% after yesterday’s outperformance.

An ongoing story that is garnering some attention today is Greece hoping to conclude negotiations with private creditors to restructure its outstanding debt. The latest chatter suggests that private sector investors will get 32 cents on the euro for their bond holdings, but plans remain in the discussion stages. As the time remaining until Greece’s redemption dates draws closer, the urgency for these deals to get done will increase, and the possibility for a dramatic sell-off in the euro grows if talks eventually fail.

Looking ahead to today’s economic releases, this morning we will get the latest UK unemployment rate from the ILO and claimant count data, while this afternoon’s docket includes US PPI, industrial production and capacity utilization.


By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant

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