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Shivani Financial GBP/USD short term bottom seems 5478-5383 and top 6210-42. Shivani Financial EUR/USD short term bottom seems 2580-2618 and top 3510. Shivani Financial USD seems to weaken this quarter with GBP target of 6330 and EUR of 3250 if talks of QE3 takes place and euro area resolution policies implemented without new story. Shivani FinancialGold has taken correction according to our forecast for it to go 1850 by August end.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Market Brief (23-Dec-2011)

During a quite Asian session, there has been steady but light buying across the board, with the Hang Seng 1.09% and Shanghai Composite 0.57%, however the lack of forward momentum is expected to weigh on risk assets into the European session. Yesterday equity markets were mildly higher on US, continuing its 3 day rally, as consumer sentiment rose and a surprising drop in weekly jobless claims. EURUSD was able to rally to 1.3096 from 1.3050 while AUDUSD in light flow climbed to 1.0181 from 1.0127. Gold was able to marginally rally off the $1600 handle but the rebound lacks momentum and unlikely to be sustained. Risk appetite remains on an uncertain footing heading into the new year, as the highly anticipated ECB lending operation failed to establish real market confidence in the European outlook in spite of a much greater than expected uptake of almost €490bn. Overall, as trader’s wind down for the holiday season, we suspect pre-holiday trading will be subdued. 

Media outlets are reporting that House Speaker Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Reid had reached a consensus on legislation extending the payroll tax-cut. The reports stated that minor changes to the existing bill would be supported by the House and Senate. An appointed negotiator will explore a possible 1-year extension of the tax cut. From a wider vantage point this developed is positive for the US since it illustrates that both sides of the political isle can actually work together. 

Looking ahead, today’s scheduled release will be reserved for the US session. US Durable goods orders m/m is expected to rise to 2.0% from -0.5%; providing US bulls further evidence that the domestic recovery is real. US personal income and spending will be critical indicators for the health and well being of the important US consumer. In Russia, the central bank is expected to keep the overnight deposit rate at 3.75% and refinance rate at 8.25%.


By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant

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