Risk appetite has been relatively stable overnight as markets continue to digest the implications of recent central bank easing and the prospects for a workable and comprehensive solution to the Eurozone debt crisis. The Nikkei is up +0.5% on the day, but the Hang Seng is trading -0.2% and Shanghai Composite -1.1% at the time of writing.
Yesterday’s Swiss GDP figures came in at a lower than expected 1.3% YoY (consensus: 1.8%), down significantly from the prior quarter’s 2.2% reading (this was itself revised down from the 2.3% reported at the time of release). With Switzerland’s CPI drifting back into deflationary territory over the past few months, this GDP figure will add further pressure on the SNB to counter CHF appreciation in order to provide some form of easing to the system.
Ahead of next week’s critical EU summit (due to begin on 9 December), Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble has suggested more tangible steps toward fiscal integration between the Eurozone member states, but this remains a very contentious issue which means FX markets will be high alert well into next week.
The headline event of the day will be the November US non-farm payrolls release, where markets are expecting around 125k were jobs added last month, compared to 80k in the month prior. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 9.0%. Earlier this week, the November ADP employment report came out at a much higher than expected 206k (compared to estimates looking for 130k); a factor which may end up skewing investor expectations even higher for today’s payrolls number. Either way, we feel that unless there is a significant surprise out of this afternoon’s data, the event will be a flash in the pan and there will be very little lasting impact after the initial reaction.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
Yesterday’s Swiss GDP figures came in at a lower than expected 1.3% YoY (consensus: 1.8%), down significantly from the prior quarter’s 2.2% reading (this was itself revised down from the 2.3% reported at the time of release). With Switzerland’s CPI drifting back into deflationary territory over the past few months, this GDP figure will add further pressure on the SNB to counter CHF appreciation in order to provide some form of easing to the system.
Ahead of next week’s critical EU summit (due to begin on 9 December), Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble has suggested more tangible steps toward fiscal integration between the Eurozone member states, but this remains a very contentious issue which means FX markets will be high alert well into next week.
The headline event of the day will be the November US non-farm payrolls release, where markets are expecting around 125k were jobs added last month, compared to 80k in the month prior. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 9.0%. Earlier this week, the November ADP employment report came out at a much higher than expected 206k (compared to estimates looking for 130k); a factor which may end up skewing investor expectations even higher for today’s payrolls number. Either way, we feel that unless there is a significant surprise out of this afternoon’s data, the event will be a flash in the pan and there will be very little lasting impact after the initial reaction.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
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