Markets remain in a wary state of risk aversion today as Greece’s brinkmanship with the troika rattles the confidence of global investors and policymakers alike. PM Papandreou’s intention to hold a referendum on the latest austerity demands is seen by many as a ploy to renegotiate better terms on the latest Eurozone rescue package, a strategy that is both daring and incredibly risky given the precarious state of Greece’s finances. What is of particular concern for investors is that the latest rescue package proposals are barely a week old and Athens has already thrown a proverbial spanner in the works with the uncertainty of a referendum – a move that seems to suggest that Greek patience and willingness to comply with the rigorous demands of Eurozone membership is wearing thin.
The G20 summit that commences today in Cannes is no doubt going to be awash with discussion about the Greek situation as the possibility of Greece’s departure from the Eurozone starts to look like a more appealing and therefore viable scenario.
Given the prevailing backdrop, the ECB meeting scheduled for later today is likely to take on a heightened prominence, the first meeting to take place under the leadership of incumbent governor Mario Draghi. The vast majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg expect no change to interest rates (which currently stand at 1.50%), but there are some outside calls for a 25bp or even 50bp cut.
Yesterday’s ADP employment report was slightly better than expected on the whole, raising expectations that Friday’s more significant non-farm payrolls will live up to expectations. According to the latest ADP figures, 110k jobs were added in October and last month’s print was revised up from 91k to 116k. The FOMC meeting last night offered little in the way of new or surprising information, as interest rates were left on hold at 0.00-0.25% and no further policy measures were introduced. Predictably, the statement reiterated the Fed’s pledge to keep rates exceptionally low until mid-2013, but the biggest surprise was the presence of a dovish dissenter on the committee for the first time since December 2007. It was Chicago Fed President Evans who voted in favour of additional easing at this meeting, but he was comfortably outnumbered 9-1, and Bernanke’s press conference did not reveal any signs that his own stance on further QE has changed very much at all.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
The G20 summit that commences today in Cannes is no doubt going to be awash with discussion about the Greek situation as the possibility of Greece’s departure from the Eurozone starts to look like a more appealing and therefore viable scenario.
Given the prevailing backdrop, the ECB meeting scheduled for later today is likely to take on a heightened prominence, the first meeting to take place under the leadership of incumbent governor Mario Draghi. The vast majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg expect no change to interest rates (which currently stand at 1.50%), but there are some outside calls for a 25bp or even 50bp cut.
Yesterday’s ADP employment report was slightly better than expected on the whole, raising expectations that Friday’s more significant non-farm payrolls will live up to expectations. According to the latest ADP figures, 110k jobs were added in October and last month’s print was revised up from 91k to 116k. The FOMC meeting last night offered little in the way of new or surprising information, as interest rates were left on hold at 0.00-0.25% and no further policy measures were introduced. Predictably, the statement reiterated the Fed’s pledge to keep rates exceptionally low until mid-2013, but the biggest surprise was the presence of a dovish dissenter on the committee for the first time since December 2007. It was Chicago Fed President Evans who voted in favour of additional easing at this meeting, but he was comfortably outnumbered 9-1, and Bernanke’s press conference did not reveal any signs that his own stance on further QE has changed very much at all.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
No comments:
Post a Comment
Feel free to comment.