Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng +0.4% and Shanghai Composite +1.4%. Investor participation feels relatively low ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit, as any developments achieved at the end of this meeting could have dramatic consequences. An article in the FT has suggested that Greek bond holders may be asked to take a 60% reduction the face value of their holdings, a scenario that would sit at the upper extreme of investor expectations. The Eurogroup Chairman, Jean-Claude Juncker echoed that bondholders could face losses of 50-60%, but clarified that coercive restructuring would not be pursued. Given this outlook, Euro sentiment continues to be strained, and were it not for the major risk event coming up (aforementioned EU summit), FX speculators might have more appetite to short EUR even further.
Coming up in today’s session, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.00% and there is a strong chance they retreat from their implied tightening bias back to an explicitly neutral stance. Central bank Governor Carney was recently reported to have said that Canadian rates have room to fall, but that they would not be “trigger happy” in making their monetary policy decisions. Undeniably, events in Europe are likely to play into consideration, and looking at the hugely uncertain outlook there, it seems prudent for the BoC to sit on the fence for now. Just before the central bank decision is announced, Canadian retail sales for August are due to be released, and markets are looking for a rebound of +0.3% MoM after last month’s -0.6% print.
Later in the session, US consumer confidence is expected to consolidate at 46.0 in October, up from last month’s 45.4 reading. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey is also due, with consensus looking for a reading of 0 (last month -6).
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
Coming up in today’s session, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.00% and there is a strong chance they retreat from their implied tightening bias back to an explicitly neutral stance. Central bank Governor Carney was recently reported to have said that Canadian rates have room to fall, but that they would not be “trigger happy” in making their monetary policy decisions. Undeniably, events in Europe are likely to play into consideration, and looking at the hugely uncertain outlook there, it seems prudent for the BoC to sit on the fence for now. Just before the central bank decision is announced, Canadian retail sales for August are due to be released, and markets are looking for a rebound of +0.3% MoM after last month’s -0.6% print.
Later in the session, US consumer confidence is expected to consolidate at 46.0 in October, up from last month’s 45.4 reading. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey is also due, with consensus looking for a reading of 0 (last month -6).
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
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