EUR has bounced well from 1.3508 and is now in a correction phase which may extend to 38.2% retracement placed @ 1.3957. In fact EUR is not prepaired to go UP at the current moment nor to go DOWN. There will be anothe fall to 1.36 before more significant correction to the upside. Most possible scenario from me is going to 1.3840-60 and then turn down again. Fundamental look shows that Greece will be sacrificed and EUR help will be transfered to other EU countries which have more chances to be saved. 2-3 french banks have already raiting decrease and maybe Germany's banks will follow after Greeces bailout . What will happen after that in Greece only God knows, civil war maybe, but Merkel and Sarkozy don't care. Trying to save Greece was a big big mistake, they have to let Greece leave the eurozone, but not to make things worse giving them more and more money which there is no way to pay back. Finally China offers help to buy EU bonds for which bonds Mrs.Merkel even doesn't want to think of - who made that woman a chancelor - only two months later she changed her position. It's time for her and Sarkozy to step back and leave their positions as they have made the crisis in Europe worse.Overseas nothing changed in a positive direction, nor in negative too, but the first on its own means that thing are not going well. FED maybe shall do nothing for now as they do for some months - maybe another QE to help the EUR to recover, but nothing more.
My advice is to for the monthly close below 1.3840 - if we have it, that will mean that a new major downside wave has started and we shall go down again,especially if Greece is thrown away.
For today SHORT @ 1.3840 if reached, LONG @ 1.36 SL 30-40 pips, a break below 1.3660 will take us 100 pips below.
Any questions and comments are welcomed.
By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant
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