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Shivani Financial GBP/USD short term bottom seems 5478-5383 and top 6210-42. Shivani Financial EUR/USD short term bottom seems 2580-2618 and top 3510. Shivani Financial USD seems to weaken this quarter with GBP target of 6330 and EUR of 3250 if talks of QE3 takes place and euro area resolution policies implemented without new story. Shivani FinancialGold has taken correction according to our forecast for it to go 1850 by August end.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Another €2 billion debt paydown this Friday

After representatives from the EU, IMF and ECB held earlier on the day a second tele-conference with Greece's finance minister, sources familar with the negotations said good progress was made during the call and technical discussions would resume in the coming days, raising hopes the next aid tranche may be done and dusted by the end of September.

Greece is desperately in need of fresh cash in order to avoid a default. It has another €2 billion debt paydown this Friday, and steps are being closely monitored by the market, that remains on edge amid the uncertainty on whether the next 8 billion euro finacial assistance will be approved. If the troikka mission fails to see enough evidence that Greece will be able to meet its austerity plan, it may be the end game, a scenario that may spurr market volatility to the next level.

So far, the slow and vague flow of information continues to unsettle the markets, and the environment of daily headline risk remains. Euro is still down on the week, but has been able to stop the bleeding after forging a solid foothold around 1.3595. Now, after the technicalities that still need to be discussed, the mission of top inspectors from Greece's international lenders (Troikaa) is due to return to Athens next week to reassess the progress being made in its 110 billion euro rescue programme.

The latest reports from Reuters explains that Greece has agreed to front-load austerity measures and “is close to securing a deal with its international lenders”, a Finance Ministry official told the newsagency on Tuesday. “I feel confident that the next tranche will be disbursed. We are close to clinching a deal with the troika," the official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Slovakian Goverment losses confidence vote

The Slovenian cabinet lost a confidence vote in parliament on Tuesday, exemplifying increased policy implementation risk in the Eurozone. As Chris Walker from the UBS FX team explained: "The government will now have 30 days to find a new leader and assemble a parliamentary majority. If this can't be achieved, then parliament will be dissolved and elections will take place, with 4th December being the earliest election date."

"This potentially complicates ratification of the EFSF changes agreed by EU leaders on 21 July. All 17 eurozone states must ratify the changes before the new EFSF capabilities can become operational" Mr. Walker added.

By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant

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