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Shivani Financial GBP/USD short term bottom seems 5478-5383 and top 6210-42. Shivani Financial EUR/USD short term bottom seems 2580-2618 and top 3510. Shivani Financial USD seems to weaken this quarter with GBP target of 6330 and EUR of 3250 if talks of QE3 takes place and euro area resolution policies implemented without new story. Shivani FinancialGold has taken correction according to our forecast for it to go 1850 by August end.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

French debts will be downgraded


Stock markets got hit again yesterday as driven by concerns that credit ratings of French debts will be downgraded. Wall Street slumped with DJIA and S&P 500 losing -4.62% and -4.42% respectively while European bourses sank 3-5%. In the commodity sector, oil initially followed equities and fell but then reversed after the DOE/EIA reported bigger-than-expected inventory draws last week. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil ended the day at 82.89, up +4.53%, while the equivalent Brent crude contract soared +4.01% to settle at 106.68. The WTI-Brent spread remained wide at 23.79 despite the drop in Cushing stock. Gold strengthened further and broke above 1800 for the first time on record. After gaining +2.35% yesterday, the benchmark Comex contract extended the rally in Asia today to as high as 1817.6 before pulling back to around 1790.
After US' AAA debt ratings were cut by S&P, market concerns about downgrades have spread to core economies in Europe. As a big holder of sovereign debts, French banks are susceptible to have their ratings trimmed by agencies.CDS for French bonds also soared as speculations intensified. Sentiment was only calmed after S&P, Fitch and Moody's affirmed the nation's triple ratings with 'stable' outlooks.
The BOE lowered its economic forecasts in the latest quarterly inflation report. Policymakers believed risks to growth are skewed to the downside as slowdown in recovery may turn out to be more persistent than previously expected. The BOE retained the view that inflation will return to a little below target in the medium-term but expected it to fall rapidly to around +1.8% in 2 years. The BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 200B pound at the meeting last week. Yet, it reiterated the flexibility to add or remove stimulus measures when conditions warrant.

By
M.Zohaib Gadit
Forex Trading Consultant, Shivani Financial


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